2012 Forecast Based on Forecasted Major League Innings Pitched

Period Age Org IP W L S Hld QS ERA WHIP H K BB HR K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WAR
Year to Date 37 STL 17 0 2 0 0 0 3.71 1.12 16 12 3 2 6.4 1.6 1.1 0.3
Rest of Year 37 STL 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.91 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Full Year 37 STL 17 0 2 0 0 0 3.71 1.12 16 12 3 2 6.4 1.6 1.1 0.3

Six-Year Major League Equivalent Forecast

Year Org Age IP ERA WHIP H K BB HR K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WAR
2012 STL 37 17 2.91 1.21 17 13 4 1 6.8 2.1 0.5 0.3
2013 STL 38 135 3.63 1.26 136 96 34 10 6.4 2.3 0.7 1.4
2014 STL 39 119 3.84 1.31 125 82 31 9 6.2 2.3 0.7 1.0
2015 STL 40 99 4.01 1.34 107 66 26 8 6.0 2.4 0.7 0.6
2016 STL 41 112 4.22 1.38 124 71 30 9 5.7 2.4 0.7 0.4
2017 STL 42 108 4.42 1.41 122 66 30 9 5.5 2.5 0.8 0.2
2018 STL 43 105 4.62 1.46 123 62 30 9 5.3 2.6 0.8 -0.1

Latest Comment

Preseason 2012
(Submitted by lboros)

Led the league in starts for the second straight year and in innings pitched for the first time, while increasing his strikeout rate and reducing his walk rate over 2010. It might only be coincidental, but when the Cards replaced the inept Ryan Theriot at shortstop with Rafael Furcal, Carpenter cut his H/9 from 9.8 to 8.2. There’s no telling how long his weary, twice-repaired arm can stand this type of workload, but Carp remains an elite pitcher - the Cardinals’ best, without question, since Bob Gibson.

Recent Years

Year Age Org Tm Lg Class G GS CG GF W L S ERA WHIP IP H K BB HR K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WAR
2008 33 STL SPR TEX AA 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 1.25 4 1 4 4 0 9.0 9.0 0.0 0.2
2008 33 STL MEM PCL AAA 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 3.18 0.88 6 4 5 1 0 7.9 1.6 0.0 0.1
2008 33 STL STL NL MLB 4 3 0 0 0 1 0 1.76 1.31 15 16 7 4 0 4.1 2.4 0.0 0.6
2009 34 STL STL NL MLB 28 28 3 0 17 4 0 2.24 1.01 193 156 144 38 7 6.7 1.8 0.3 6.8
2010 35 STL STL NL MLB 35 35 1 0 16 9 0 3.22 1.18 235 214 179 63 21 6.9 2.4 0.8 5.7
2011 36 STL STL NL MLB 34 34 4 0 11 9 0 3.45 1.26 237 243 191 55 16 7.2 2.1 0.6 5.2
2012 37 STL STL NL MLB 3 3 0 0 0 2 0 3.71 1.12 17 16 12 3 2 6.4 1.6 1.1 0.3

Recent Years/Major League Equivalents

Year Age Org Lg Class ERA WHIP IP H K BB HR K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WAR
2008 33 STL NL MLB 3.19 1.27 24.48 21 15 10 0 5.5 3.7 0.0 0.6
2009 34 STL NL MLB 3.00 1.08 178.33 154 148 39 6 7.5 2.0 0.3 5.0
2010 35 STL NL MLB 3.08 1.15 238.58 211 181 64 17 6.8 2.4 0.6 6.3
2011 36 STL NL MLB 3.39 1.25 237.28 240 194 56 14 7.4 2.1 0.5 5.1
2012 37 STL NL MLB 3.91 1.11 17.1 16 12 3 2 6.3 1.6 1.1 0.2

Older Comments

Preseason 2011
(Submitted by lboros)

Carpenter struggled on and off all season to command his signature pitch, the cut fastball. He got nailed on the pitching arm at midseason by a line drive. And he visibly wore down at the end of the year, going 3-6 with a 4.08 ERA over his last 10 starts. Carp did avoid the disabled list all season, the first time that’s happened since 2005, enabling him to log 235 innings, the second-highest total of his career. The effect (if any) of that workload on Carpenter in 2011 bears watching.

Preseason 2010
(Submitted by lboros)

The baseball gremlins have used all means at their disposal to destroy this pitcher’s arm. They’ve attacked the joints, the nerves, the connective tissue; they’ve sent surgeries and rehabs awry. And yet the limb lives on. What an irony, then, that the injury that cost Carpenter six 2009 starts (and, probably, his second Cy Young Award) occurred while he was swinging the bat.

Carpenter’s K/9 rate was down somewhat in 2009, as you might expect for a pitcher who missed (essentially) two whole seasons, but his ability to miss bats and induce weak contact is miraculously intact. He became the Cardinals’ first ERA titlist since Joe Magrane in 1988.