February 9, 2010
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How do you spot a lefty masher? (2)
Jose Tabata in his mid-twenties? (1) Why would Pujols strike a deal now? (15) The Twins will spend over $100 million on players in 2010 (11) Chicago’s $60 million question: will Alex Rios bounce back? (2)  
Pat Andriola
Rich Barbieri John Barten Brian Borawski Craig Brown Evan Brunell Chuck Brownson Kevin Dame Joshua Fisher David Gassko Jeremy Greenhouse Brandon Isleib Chris Jaffe Max Marchi Bruce Markusen Dan Novick Harry Pavlidis Alex Pedicini Jeff Sackmann Nick Steiner Dave Studeman Steve Treder Bryan Tsao Tuck! Geoff Young John Brattain And here's the full roster.
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Monday, February 08, 2010How do you spot a lefty masher?by Pat AndriolaI was extremely excited to find that our saber-partner, Fangraphs, is now hosting splits data on their site. Lefty/righty splits are something that fascinate me. Ever since I was a little kid, I was awed by the idea of having a "lefty masher" on the bench, just in case an opposing manager brought in a LOOGY, allowing you to pull a quick-one and play for the extra-base hit. However, lefty/right analysis has advanced since my adolescence, and I think this post from MGL is a must read for what I'm talking about. In it he says: IOW, how a batter does against RH pitchers informs us on how he will likely do against LH pitchers and vice versa. Why? Because there is not much of a spread in true platoon splits among ML baseball players yet there is a large spread in overall true hitting talent among ML baseball players. So if we see a large platoon split, like for a player like [Ryan] Howard, it is likely a fluke. If a player does really well versus RH pitchers but terrible against LH pitchers, both the “really well” and the “terrible” numbers are likely fluky and the “truth” is somewhere in between. So MGL's main thesis is that the large discrepancies we see in some players is due to a smaller sample size relative to their overall performance, which is a more useful indicator of their talent and can be applied to platoon splits via regression to come up with a more "stable" number. MGL goes on to do this for Howard, getting an OPS of .805 versus lefties, rather than his actual .719 over the past four years. The question I then have to ask is: how long do we have to wait to believe that a noticeably large split is due to a real ability to mash one side and a true inability to hit even close to as well (relative to the other side) against the other? Unfortunately, we don't have league leader/sortable data on Fangraphs pertaining to splits just yet, but I thought about all the guys that announcers had told me stunk against their same-handed pitching counterparts and looked them up. Here are some interesting names sorted by wRC+ with their same-handed numbers first, opposite second, and plate appearances in parentheses: Ryan Garko: 106 (485), 136 (1229) Carlos Delgado: 107 (1400), 154 (3123) Fernando Tatis: 90 (465), 111 (910) Eric Karros: 83 (312), 134 (737) Jack Cust: 105 (1510), 134 (1373) Some extreme differences there, and these are only the ones that hit me from memory. Obviously MGL and others are not saying that some players don't hit better against opposite hand pitchers; this is clearly true. The question is how much. I'd also like to see how players do split wise over the course of a career. Obviously the skill of hitters diminishes over time, but it'd be interesting to see if the splits are larger. Ryan Howard certainly is not "old" at 30 years old, but his skill set and physical size certainly have shifted over the years. While he was never slender, Howard is certainly a "bigger" guy than he used to be, and probably a good amount slower. Besides that, as players get older they tend to lose some hand-eye skill and bat speed, an effect that may be magnified when facing a pitcher of the same handedness. Here are Howard's wRC+ from 2006-2009, going from overall to versus lefties and then versus righties. 2006: 166, 133, 182 2007: 140, 110, 159 2008: 123, 91, 143 2009: 141, 71, 178 As you can see, that's a 49 point difference in 2006, same in 2007, 52 in 2008, and 107 in 2009. I doubt the difference will be as big in 2010, because I'm sure we can charge a big chunk of the 107 to some luck, but we shouldn't be surprised to see a difference of around 75-90 points. There's still a good amount of work to be done in this area of research, and we should be excited for Fangraphs' new tool. I think the next step is looking to the data to find similar traits in players, both physically and in their numbers, to determine whether their relative success versus opposite-handed pitchers would be indicative of future success, or just white noise. I'm anxious to find out. Jose Tabata in his mid-twenties?by David GolebiewskiSince Neal Huntington became general manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates in September of 2007, the organization has undergone wholesale changes in player evaluation and resource allocation. Gone are the mind-bending days of passing up B.J. Upton and Matt Wieters to save a quick buck, forfeiting staggering amounts of surplus value in those zero-to-six years of service time in the process. Also gone are the days of paying large chunks of cash to veterans on their last legs, such as Matt Morris and Jeromy Burnitz. Click for more... Friday, February 05, 2010Stanton packs the powerby Alex PediciniFew prospects posses the enormous raw power that Mike Stanton has. The Florida Marlins outfielder has hit a grand total of 67 home runs in his first two full minor league seasons before the age of 20. He was recently rated the number three prospect in all of baseball by MLB Network. The 6'5 righty was an incredible athlete in high school and had committed to play both football and baseball at USC before signing with the Marlins as a second round pick in 2007. In just over 1000 career minor league at bats Stanton has compiled a .267/.354/.593 average. Although he has shown a propensity to strikeout (31.7 percent), which is obviously a concern, he has posted a decent walk rate (10.5 percent) and the ability to work the count. The Marlins challenged Stanton during the 2009 season with a mid-season promotion to Double-A and he appeared to be slightly overmatched, which is not out of the ordinary for a 19-year old. He posted a remarkable .433 wOBA in 210 plate appearances in Advanced-A but this number dipped to .344 in 341 PA in Double-A. Despite his relative struggles after the promotion he still flashed his power by posting a .224 ISO Stanton has power to all fields and several reports have him as an 80 power on the scouting scale. You can get a sense of how far he can hit the ball from these spray charts (2008 and 2009) courtesy of minor league splits. His defense has also been improving. Although he is not a base stealer he does have pretty good speed and range in the outfield and his arm plays well in right field. Total Zone had him pegged as a +9 right fielder in '09. His frame is still thin and he could potentially add more muscle and power as he matures physically. The amazing thing about Stanton is that he is still so raw. He will become a more fluid and advanced hitter as he grows into his body. With more at bats in the minors he will be able to refine his swing and cut down his strikeouts. Florida always seems to develop young prospects nicely and I expect they will take caution in monitoring Stanton's progress. He will likely start out 2010 in Double-A again and he may reach the majors by late 2011. He projects as a solid right fielder and middle of the order run producer for the Marlins. The Twins will spend over $100 million on players in 2010by Joshua FisherThe Minnesota Twins, on death's doorstop just a few years ago, will spend more on player salaries this upcoming season than the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball's attendance leader in 2009. After signing Orlando Hudson, the Twins' payroll projects to be $96 million on opening day, and that number doesn't account for whatever amount will be added to Joe Mauer's 2010 take, currently slated for $12.5 million. It's not unreasonable to suggest that Mauer's annual salary will increase by $10 million or more, which would mean a payroll of over $106 million in 2010. In 2000, the Twins' payroll was $15,700,000. A decade later, it will have increased by over $90 million. To put that number in perspective, the Yankees' payroll has increased by about $103 million over that span. It's a strange day, indeed, in which the Twins are in the Yankees' company when it comes to payroll increases. So what does the Orlando Hudson signing mean? In 2010, the Hudson signing cements the Twins as favorites to repeat as AL Central champions. Adding a 2.0-2.5 win player is never a bad thing, but it's even nicer when that player bumps an incumbent who goes a long way toward putting the R in WAR. Given that the Twins have either won or lost the division by a single game three of the last four years, it's not hard to see that a win here and there can make all the difference. This offseason's been delightful for the Twins, who retained Carl Pavano and added J.J. Hardy* and Jim Thome along with Hudson. The only real fly in the ointment is Delmon Young. While I think there's a strong case to be made for not giving up on the guy, Jason Kubel and Jim Thome really need to be playing every day against righties unless Young can turn the corner. How long the team will sacrifice Kubel/Thome plate appearances to give Young a chance will be interesting to watch. I think there's a decent chance the Hardy/Carlos Gomez swap ends up being the stealth steal of the offseason. Seriously, Milwaukee? The ghost of Tom Goodwin is the best you could do? On the broader, organizational level, the move shows we're not dealing with the same old Twins. A few weeks ago, I wrote that the Twins might be well on their way to becoming the American League's St. Louis Cardinals. Look where we are today: sparkling stadium? Check. Best player in the league? Check. Organizational stability? Check. The willingness and wherewithal to capitalize on an undervalued player? Check. The AL Central is the Twins' for the taking in 2010, and that doesn't look to change any time soon. For a state devastated by sports catasters and disastrophies (yes, that's where we're at), the Twins are a crucial beacon of hope. With a solid major league core, some interesting hitting prospects, and the system's never-ending supply of strike-throwers, the Twins are in a good spot. And you know what? One of these years, they'll knock off the Yankees. As we all know, getting to the tournament is more important than being the best team in it. And the Twins might just be in as good a position as any team in baseball to make the tournament with regularity over the next several years. Thursday, February 04, 2010Why would Pujols strike a deal now?by Joshua FisherOver at Circling the Bases, Craig Calcaterra speculates on negotiations between Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals. I just don't understand why. I suppose negotiating an extension this offseason makes some sense; it would probably be Albert's last giant contract, and getting it inked soon mitigates the risk of catastrophic injury. Also, it gives the Cardinals cost-certainty going forward. The Cardinals won't like paying two players about $45 million a year, but at least they'll know what they have to play with. It's the timing that confuses me, and it mostly has to do with our buddy Joe Mauer. Why would the only player in baseball justified in asking for more money than Mauer not wait for Mauer to set the market? Pujols has every reason to ask for more money--I don't need to spill any digital ink describing just how insanely awesome he is. If Mauer has a chance to become the best catcher ever, Pujols has a chance to be regarded as the best player ever, barring injury or an age adjustment or that other thing I'm not even going to talk about. So why not wait? Now, between the Longoria and Mauer pieces, I don't think I can say I'm anything less than an advocate for player greed. It's entirely possible that Pujols doesn't really care about every last dime. Wednesday, February 03, 2010Justin Verlander stays in Detroit for five years, $80 millionby Evan BrunellThe Associated Press is reporting that right-handed starter Justin Verlander has agreed to a five-year, $80 million deal with the Tigers. The deal buys out Verlander's final two years of arbitration and three years of free agency. Click for more... Tuesday, February 02, 2010Scott Downs or Jason Frasor?by Evan BrunellThe Toronto Blue Jays' closer's job at the moment seems to be between Scott Downs and Jason Frasor, although other candidates may have a say in the battle. For instance, Kevin Gregg may ink shortly with the Blue Jays, which would throw him into the discussion for the closing job. For the purposes of this article, however, I want to take a look at who would be the better candidate to close between the internal options of Downs and Frasor. Click for more... Discussion: What makes sense for Joe Mauer and the Twins?by Joshua FisherIt would be a massive upset if Joe Mauer and the Twins can't reach an agreement that keeps him in Minnesota for years to come. It would be a blow to the team as it opens a publicly-funded stadium built with Mauer in mind. It would be a blow to a sports community fraught with one disappointment and defection after another. And it would be a blow to me, personally; I live about a mile from Target Field, and it's really freaking fun to watch the guy play ball. But what makes sense? The rumor flying around these parts (after it spends the proper amount of time doused by that pink de-icing liquid) is a ten-year deal well into the $200 millions. While that might be the broad framework of an eventual agreement, I'm not buying that it will be as simple as that de facto lifetime contract. Such a commitment, in my opinion, doesn't serve either party's best interests. As fabulous a player as Mauer is, we don't know how long he'll be able to catch. And we don't know if he can play third base. And we don't know if he'll have the power to be paid like the best player in the league if he plays first. Committing the team's short- and medium-term future to a player surrounded by so much uncertainty is a more than a little dangerous. As for Mauer, his concern has to be that, with the Twins paying he and Justin Morneau something like $40 million per season combined, will there be enough money to put a team around those two? It's important to remember how big a boon Target Field should be for the organization; the Twins didn't derive any revenue from luxury suite sales at the Metrodome. So they'll get a significantly larger boost from opening a new stadium than usual, which should help. I don't see the Twins and Joe Mauer parting ways at this juncture. The Twins simply cannot trade their franchise player during the inaugural season at their publicly-funded ballpark, which is exactly what would have to happen if no agreement is reached. And Mauer really does want to be here. Staying long-term would all-but-assure him of becoming the single greatest figure in the history of Minnesota sports. This deal is going to get done. So what kind of contract makes sense? I say something like 10 years at $250 million with a couple out clauses along the way, maybe for 2013 and 2016. I think it would be appropriate to have the the 2016-and-beyond seasons contingent on something like plate appearances, to mitigate the injury risk. (Thanks, Ed!) This gives the club the cornerstone it needs and the player the chance to hit the market in his prime if, for whatever reason, it's just not going to work in Minnesota. What do you think? Monday, February 01, 2010More on WARby Jeremy GreenhouseEarlier this year, it seemed like every other week FanGraphs was improving its stats section. So I’m anxious to see what David Appelman has in store for the new season comes, as I’m sure his projects have been building up. But first, I had some thoughts on the already-existing WAR. Click for more... Chicago’s $60 million question: will Alex Rios bounce back?by David GolebiewskiSelected with the 19th overall pick in the 1999 draft, outfielder Alex Rios emerged as an all-around threat for the Toronto Blue Jays. The gangly 6-5 righty batter combined power, speed and range, garnering a six-year, $64 million contract extension in April of 2008, with a $13.5 million club option for the 2015 season. Rios' well-rounded skill-set and whopping new deal figured to make him a fixture in the Jays' outfield for years to come. Within a year and a half, however, Toronto's frustration with Rios and its other burdensome financial commitments (hello, Vernon Wells) compelled the club to let Rios go to the Chicago White Sox on a waiver claim. In snagging Rios, the Pale Hose took on what was left of his $5.9 million salary for the 2009 season, as well as a total of nearly $60 million from 2010-2014 (contract information from Cots Baseball Contracts): Click for more... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||